Assessing drought recurrence using nonlinear approach
Contexte du projet
Currently, in several countries around the world, with the
increase in surface air temperature caused by global warming, erratic and
uncertain rainfall distribution, especially in arid and semi-arid ecosystems is
manifested. Predicting the recurrence of drought cannot be possible without
purposeful investigation of basics of underlying processes. Traditionally,
statistical models have been used for drought forecasting based on linear time
series analysis methods. However, basically linear models assume that the data is
stationary and practically do not enable to deal with non-stationarities and
non-linearities in the related natural processes. Other models and approaches
should be used when non-linearity and non-stationarity play an important role
in forecasting drought recurrence. Based on the above, the main objective of
the proposed research is to investigate features of drought recurrence patterns
at local, spatial and temporal scales, based on available meteorological
variation data sets. This will analyse the non-linear and recurrence properties
of min, max and average air temperature datasets as well as precipitation time
series from different locations in western and eastern Georgia.
Réalisations significatives
Centre européen sur les risques géodynamique liés aux grand barrages - Géorgie :
The project aimed to analyse long time series of
precipitation in 4 countries in order to find retrospectively the
meteorological drought periods (i.e. prolonged period with less than average
precipitation and high temperature) in order to infer the recurrence rate of
droughts. Up to now we have collected long time series of precipitation and
temperature in Georgia for 150 years and from 1988 to 2013 from Algeria. We
intend to calculate The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) or the Palmer Drought
Severity Index to measure the duration and intensity of the long-term
drought-inducing patterns as well as they persistency/anti-persistency.
Résultats attendus
Résultats attendus année 1
Centre européen sur les risques géodynamique liés aux grand barrages - Géorgie : Understanding linear/nonlinear properties of meteorological
data sets, especially precipitation and temperature time series for elucidation
of characteristics of drought recurrence
Résultats attendus année 2
New understanding of spatial variation of drought recurrence
in Georgia, Greece, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Turkey and assessing drought
predictive time scales in Georgia, Greece, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Turkey
GHHD
ECMHT
CRSTRA
ECPFE
Centre européen sur les risques géodynamique liés aux grand barrages - Géorgie
Livrables année 2
Compilation of a database of electronic time series on
temperature and precipitation from 10 meteorological stations in Georgia for
the last 60 years
Establishing the temporal pattern of droughts in Georgia in
pre-industrial and post-industrial periods using a toolbox of linear/nonlinear
methods
Centre européen sur les risques géodynamique liés aux grand barrages - Géorgie
Livrables année 2
Compilation of a database of electronic time series on
temperature and precipitation from 10 meteorological stations in Georgia for
the last 60 years
Establishing the temporal pattern of droughts in Georgia in
pre-industrial and post-industrial periods using a toolbox of linear/nonlinear
methods
Centre européen de formation et d’information des pouvoirs locaux et régionaux et de la population dans le domaine des catastrophes naturelles et technologiques - Azerbaïdjan
Livrables année 2
Centre de recherche scientifique et technique sur les régions arides - Algérie
Livrables année 2
Centre européen pour la prévention et la prévision des tremblements de terre - Grèce
Livrables année 2
Collection of time series of 118 years of required data (max
temperature, precipitation) for Athens and relevant time series from 5-10
stations spread in Greece since the 50s