Centres Spécialisés Risques Majeurs
Accord européen et mediterranéen
sur les risques majeurs
Accueil ECMHT Assessing drought recurrence using nonlinear approach
Azerbaïdjan

Assessing drought recurrence using nonlinear approach

Contexte du projet

Currently, in several countries around the world, with the increase in surface air temperature caused by global warming, erratic and uncertain rainfall distribution, especially in arid and semi-arid ecosystems is manifested. Predicting the recurrence of drought cannot be possible without purposeful investigation of basics of underlying processes. Traditionally, statistical models have been used for drought forecasting based on linear time series analysis methods. However, basically linear models assume that the data is stationary and practically do not enable to deal with non-stationarities and non-linearities in the related natural processes. Other models and approaches should be used when non-linearity and non-stationarity play an important role in forecasting drought recurrence. Based on the above, the main objective of the proposed research is to investigate features of drought recurrence patterns at local, spatial and temporal scales, based on available meteorological variation data sets. This will analyse the non-linear and recurrence properties of min, max and average air temperature datasets as well as precipitation time series from different locations in western and eastern Georgia.

Réalisations significatives

Centre européen sur les risques géodynamique liés aux grand barrages - Géorgie :
The project aimed to analyse long time series of precipitation in 4 countries in order to find retrospectively the meteorological drought periods (i.e. prolonged period with less than average precipitation and high temperature) in order to infer the recurrence rate of droughts. Up to now we have collected long time series of precipitation and temperature in Georgia for 150 years and from 1988 to 2013 from Algeria. We intend to calculate The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) or the Palmer Drought Severity Index to measure the duration and intensity of the long-term drought-inducing patterns as well as they persistency/anti-persistency.
Résultats attendus

Résultats attendus année 1

Centre européen sur les risques géodynamique liés aux grand barrages - Géorgie : Understanding linear/nonlinear properties of meteorological data sets, especially precipitation and temperature time series for elucidation of characteristics of drought recurrence

Résultats attendus année 2

New understanding of spatial variation of drought recurrence in Georgia, Greece, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Turkey and assessing drought predictive time scales in Georgia, Greece, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Turkey
GHHD ECMHT CRSTRA ECPFE

Centre européen sur les risques géodynamique liés aux grand barrages - Géorgie



Livrables année 2

  • Compilation of a database of electronic time series on temperature and precipitation from 10 meteorological stations in Georgia for the last 60 years

  • Establishing the temporal pattern of droughts in Georgia in pre-industrial and post-industrial periods using a toolbox of linear/nonlinear methods

Centre européen sur les risques géodynamique liés aux grand barrages - Géorgie



Livrables année 2


  • Compilation of a database of electronic time series on temperature and precipitation from 10 meteorological stations in Georgia for the last 60 years

  • Establishing the temporal pattern of droughts in Georgia in pre-industrial and post-industrial periods using a toolbox of linear/nonlinear methods

Centre européen de formation et d’information des pouvoirs locaux et régionaux et de la population dans le domaine des catastrophes naturelles et technologiques - Azerbaïdjan



Livrables année 2


  • Collection of weather (temperature and precipitation) electronic time series for the last 10 years from 10 meteorological stations in Azerbaijan

  • Collection of statistical data on the droughts in Azerbaijan over the same time period

Centre de recherche scientifique et technique sur les régions arides - Algérie



Livrables année 2


  • Collection of weather (temperature and precipitation) electronic time series for the last 60 years from 10 meteorological stations in Algeria

  • Collection of statistical data on the droughts in Algeria over the same time period

Centre européen pour la prévention et la prévision des tremblements de terre - Grèce



Livrables année 2


Collection of time series of 118 years of required data (max temperature, precipitation) for Athens and relevant time series from 5-10 stations spread in Greece since the 50s

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